NCAB Group Warning: Jet Fuel Shortage Threatens PCB Supply Chain Logistics from Asia

Key Takeaway

NCAB Group’s May 2026 PCB Supply Chain Outlook reveals a new threat beyond the well-documented capacity constraints: Europe is heading towards a critical jet fuel shortage that could severely impact air freight logistics from Asian PCB manufacturing hubs to Western customers.

The report — released as the global PCB industry operates in what NCAB characterizes as an unprecedented seller’s market — adds logistics uncertainty to an already stressed supply chain where AI demand has pushed factory utilization to record levels.

The Fuel Shortage Dimension

While the PCB industry has focused on material shortages (copper foil, low-loss laminates, ABF substrate film) and capacity constraints, NCAB’s May 2026 report introduces a logistics dimension that procurement teams may not have factored into their supply planning.

The jet fuel concern stems from:

• Refinery capacity reductions in Europe as facilities transition toward sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates
• Increasing competition for available fuel from surging passenger aviation recovery
• OPEC+ production policy creating crude oil supply uncertainty
• SAF blending mandates (EU ReFuelEU Aviation: 2% SAF by 2025, 6% by 2030) reducing conventional jet fuel output

For the PCB industry, which relies heavily on air freight for expedited and standard delivery from Asia, this creates a compounding problem: even if your PCB supplier completes fabrication on schedule, getting boards from Shenzhen, Suzhou, or Taoyuan to Munich, Detroit, or London may face new delays and cost increases.

AI Demand Remains the Primary Constraint

NCAB’s report reaffirms that the fundamental market driver remains AI infrastructure demand:

“AI technology requirements — high-layer multilayers, HDI, low-loss/low-Df materials, and high-speed PCBs — have pushed factory utilization to unprecedented levels. This surge has created spillover effects: even factories not directly producing AI-grade products are feeling the strain.”

The demand extends beyond just AI-grade boards:

• Power supplies for data center infrastructure
• Thermal management modules for AI accelerators
• Supporting hardware throughout the ecosystem

NCAB concludes: “The immediate outlook does not indicate any improvement or relief. Allocations are tightening, lead times are extending, and factories no longer have the material availability they once relied on.”

What This Means for Hardware Engineers

The combined effect of capacity constraints AND potential logistics disruptions means:

1. Plan further ahead: Standard lead times that were 4–6 weeks in 2024 may require 8–12 weeks in H2 2026
2. Consider sea freight for non-urgent production orders (14–21 days vs. 3–5 days air, but more reliable)
3. Diversify logistics routes: Alternative carriers, multiple shipping lanes, bonded warehouse buffers
4. Lock in allocations early: Annual pricing frameworks are no longer viable according to NCAB — expect dynamic pricing
5. Qualify backup suppliers in regions with shorter logistics chains

AtlasPCB’s Response

At AtlasPCB, we maintain diversified logistics partnerships including:

• Direct relationships with multiple air carriers serving China-to-global routes
• Sea freight options for production volumes where lead time permits
• Buffer inventory programs for long-term customers
• Real-time order tracking from fabrication through delivery

For customers with upcoming production runs, we recommend placing orders 2–3 weeks earlier than historical norms to buffer against potential logistics variability.

Source: NCAB Group PCB Supply Chain Outlook, May 2026

Planning your next PCB production run? Contact AtlasPCB early to secure capacity and discuss logistics options that fit your timeline.

Image: Timelab Pro via Unsplash